Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Business confidence in Germany,
Europe's largest economy, climbed to a five-year high in December,
suggesting economic growth will accelerate as increasing exports
help fuel corporate investment.
The Ifo confidence index, based on a monthly survey of 7,000
executives, rose to 99.6 from November's 97.8. Economists expected
the Munich-based institute's indicator to rise to 98.2, the median
of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed.
The euro's 12 percent decline against the dollar this year is
making exports more competitive, increasing sales for companies
including ThyssenKrupp AG, Germany's biggest steelmaker, and Audi
AG, the luxury carmaker. Economic growth may accelerate next year
as businesses invest in new machinery to meet foreign orders,
according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development. Germany accounts for about one-third of the euro-
region economy.
``Today's reading suggests the economic upswing in the euro
zone is going to continue into next year,'' said Lorenzo Codogno,
co-head of European economics at Bank of America in London. That
means the European Central Bank ``will continue to gradually
increase interest rates.''
Faster growth in the 12 nations that share the euro
encouraged the ECB to raise interest rates for the first time in
five years this month to keep inflation under control. The bank
increased its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 2.25 percent.
Exports, Investment
Germany's benchmark DAX stock index rose as much as 1.1
percent today and was at 5335.72 at 2:05 p.m. in Frankfurt, taking
its gains this year to 25 percent.
``The strong world economy, combined with a noticeable
improvement in the price competitiveness of German companies, is
supporting'' confidence, Klaus-Peter Mueller, chief executive at
Commerzbank AG, Germany's third-biggest publicly traded bank, said
in an interview today.
ThyssenKrupp plans to increase its output of electrical
steel, which is used mainly in transformers, by 25 percent by
fiscal 2007 to meet demand from Asia. At the same time, it has
agreed to buy three companies to expand its repair service
business for the power industry in Germany.
Germany's exports will grow 6 percent next year and
companies' spending on items such as machine tools and computers
will increase by more than 4.5 percent, Juergen Thumann, president
of Germany's BDI industry association, said in an interview on
Dec. 8.
Euro's Decline
``Export expectations clearly rose again,'' said Gernot Nerb,
an economist at the Ifo institute. A gauge of business
expectations rose to 99.6 in December from 97.8 in November. The
euro's decline ``has definitely helped somewhat. Companies don't
expect another appreciation of the currency,'' Nerb said.
The euro's retreat since reaching a record $1.3666 on Dec. 30
is buoying foreign demand for products from Germany, the world's
largest exporter of goods. The currency was trading at $1.2011 at
4:14 p.m. The BGA exporters' and wholesalers' association predicts
Germany will export 780 billion euros ($938 billion) of goods this
year, an increase of almost 7 percent from 2004.
Crude oil prices have dropped 15 percent since reaching a
record $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30, easing the burden of energy
costs on companies and consumers.
``At the German companies we talk to, the tone is more
positive than ever,'' said Jean-Michel Six, chief European
economist at Standard & Poor's in London. ``With the combination
of export performance and the pickup in business investment in
Germany, the economy is much more balanced and much more
competitive on an international basis.''
Accelerating Growth
German economic growth may accelerate to 1.8 percent next
year from 1.1 percent this year, the OECD said Nov. 29. Investor
confidence rose the most in more than 12 years in December on
signs the export-led economic expansion is encouraging companies
to invest.
Audi, the luxury division of Volkswagen AG, Europe's largest
carmaker, said Dec. 7 it will spend as much as 4 billion euros
through 2007 on new models as the carmaker tries to increase
annual sales to 1 million vehicles.
``Export growth is strong and that is supporting the domestic
economy,'' said Andre Schwarz, a director for the BGA, which
represents 135,000 companies employing 1.35 million people. ``But
exports alone won't be enough to create new jobs and revive
consumption. We can't be too happy with the outlook.''
Job Cuts
Household consumption contracted for a third straight quarter
in the three months through September, the Federal Statistics
Office said Nov. 22, as higher energy costs and unemployment at
11.5 percent discouraged spending.
Deutsche Telekom AG's supervisory board on Dec. 12 approved a
plan by Europe's largest telephone company to eliminate 32,000
German positions after more than two years of shrinking revenue at
its traditional phone business.
``There won't be a turnaround in the labor market until the
second half of next year,'' said Sylvain Broyer, an economist at
Ixis CIB in Frankfurt. ``The ECB certainly isn't in a hurry to
raise rates again. They'll want to show they're not hurting
growth.''
The ECB predicts euro-region growth will accelerate to about
1.9 percent next year from 1.4 percent this year, according to
forecasts published Dec. 1. The bank expects inflation to stay at
or above its 2 percent ceiling in 2006 and 2007.
Higher ECB Rates?
European inflation slowed more last month than initially
reported after energy prices retreated. Consumer prices in the
dozen euro nations rose 2.3 percent in November from a year
earlier, the smallest increase since August and below a Nov. 30
estimate of 2.4 percent, the European Union's statistics office
said in Luxembourg today.
The ECB ``signaled they may only raise rates once,'' said
Ifo's Nerb. ``That appeared to have a positive effect on
companies.''
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said this month's decision
to raise rates doesn't signal a series of increases. Council
member Erkki Liikanen said Dec. 12 the ECB's monetary policy
``still clearly continues to support growth.''
Investors are betting the ECB will raise its benchmark rate
to 2.5 percent by the end of the first quarter and to 2.75 percent
by the end of the third, futures trading shows. The implied rate
on the three-month contract for March settlement was at 2.70
percent today, while the rate on the September contract was at
2.98 percent.
The contracts settle to the three-month euro area inter-bank
offered rate for the euro, which has averaged 15 basis points more
than the ECB's benchmark rate since the currency's launch in 1999.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Matthew Brockett in Frankfurt at
mbrockett1@bloomberg.net .